War for Oil? Possibly

It's not widely known, but the fourth-largest supplier of crude oil and petroleum products to the United States is Venezuela, which, in 2003, provided a total equal to about ¾'s of that provided by Saudi Arabia. A cut-off of oil supplies from that nation would send already-high oil prices into the stratosphere. Worse still: it's entirely possible that, thanks to an increasingly-close relationship with China, Venezuela's leftist President, Hugo Chavez, could cut off exports without harming his own domestic economy. In terms of ability and willingness to cause widespread harm to the United States, Chavez may be the single most dangerous enemy that America has today.

So: what is to be done? The coup, of course, has been the traditional American means for getting rid of Latin American leaders who forget their place in the natural order of things. This was already tried against Chavez in the spring of 2002 and horribly botched.

There were three major reasons for the failure of the coup, in my view;

First: though the plotters successfully captured Chavez they, for some insane reason, failed to immediately execute him. This, of course, allowed him to resume power once the plot had collapsed.

Second, the plotters failed to dispose of other major regime figures, most notably the Vice President.

Finally, action taken to suppress protests after the coup were weak and half-hearted. It may be politically incorrect to say so, but a coup isn't a tea party: people have to die. I discuss this simply as a means of pointing out that I'm not entirely sure if there are people in Venezuela willing to launch a coup who have the courage to carry it through to the finish.

To begin: the consequences of any sort of Venezuela-China deal must be made extremely clear. Any attempt to interfere with the American economy by China and Venezuela would, in essence, be an economic declaration of war and would require an appropriate response.

Worse still, Venezuela has become increasingly aggressive within the region. In particular, it's begun to play a major role in the ongoing FARC terrorist war in Colombia, funding the group and providing it with sanctuary.

Venezuela has acquired advanced military technology in recent years, most notably through a deal with Russia to purchase MiG-29 fighters. An assault on that country would be difficult.

Similarly, going to war with China over Venezuelan oil would be, in my view, at least slightly excessive.

However, I do have one idea. It's a simple one: a naval blockade combined with air strikes. If the United States can't have Venezuelan oil, than no one can. A relatively small force of the US Navy would be fully capable of cutting off any oil shipping on the part of Venezuela. US Aircraft, even tactical aircraft based in the Continental United States, would be able to destroy that nation's air force and then, thereafter, hit at will targets of opportunity. At the same time, the US could work with other nations in the region to deploy forces in order to effect a regime change. Perhaps we might even manage to develop a made-in-Venezuela solution to the problems.

At the same time we must, of course, look for other options, short of war. In particular, we ought to consider the possibility of covert action.

Mr. Chavez appears to be the indispensable man in the regime. His assassination ought to become a paramount objective of covert US policy.

At the same time, other possibilities should be looked at. With his covert support of FARC, Chavez is practically waging war against Colombia. Perhaps they would return the favor.

Ultimately, we must be prepared for action and disdain passive measures. Hugo Chavez' Venezuela is a dangerous and rogue nation. Worse still, it's a nation with the capacity to harm the United States.

Iraq wasn't a war for oil. But that doesn't mean that such a war wouldn't be appropriate under certain conditions. The United States needs oil. The United States is the leading superpower in the world. Any nation which attempts to interfere with the American economy is committing an act of economic warfare against this country. It should be the policy of the United States to respond to acts of overt economic warfare with acts of physical warfare. Any nation which attempts to withhold its resources from the United States for the purpose of sabotaging the American economy should be attacked and forced to acknowledge its inferior position.